Three possible outcomes
A match report separates the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win. Educational example only: at 50%, 30% and 20%, the home side is the single most likely winner, yet its chance of not winning is 50%. This is not a real fixture or app report.
An estimated score is only one scenario
A score such as 1–0 summarises a possible goal scenario; it does not exclude other scorelines. Return to the probability distribution and summary to understand whether the assessment is close or decisive. A team's win probability is different from the probability of an exact score.
Availability and timing change the context
An important injury or a lineup change can alter the picture suggested by past results. Read the match date, data state and factors mentioned in the report. No injury news does not prove that every player is fit: missing information remains uncertain.
Use Vault to revisit the reasoning
Saving a report in the app lets you revisit its reasoning and compare the assessment with the finished match. Evaluating a model takes a set of reports, not one successful prediction. We do not invent a success rate or promise results; Forecast's value is organised evidence and a clearer explanation of the scenario.
Forecast questions
Does 70% mean the team will win?
It means the team is favoured by the model using the available information, while another outcome remains possible. It is not a guarantee.
Is the same forecast available for every competition?
No. Fixture eligibility and report detail depend on data coverage and the evidence needed for analysis.
How should I read the report?
Start with the probabilities, then read the summary, factors and data timing. Treat the estimated score as part of the scenario.
Probabilities based on available evidence, not guaranteed results.